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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/23 11:37

   Grains Lighly Mixed at Midday

   Corn, soybeans, and wheat are flat to lower at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow futures down 420. The 
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 15 lower. Energies are 
weaker with crude down 2.15. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs higher and 
cattle lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $12. 


   Corn trade is narrowly mixed in quiet trade midday with trade looking to 
hold the support found to open the week. Outside markets are negative limiting 
upside. The harvest pace should be good the next few days with the more open 
weather expected to persist into late October. Some forecasts have started to 
drift wetter towards the end of the month, which is keeping combines rolling as 
much as possible. Ethanol margins remain tight with futures below $1.30 a 
gallon, and further energy complex weakness here at midday. Corn basis should 
see some pressure with better harvest pace. The weekly crop progress showed 
harvest at 49%, 2 percentage points ahead of average with conditions unchanged 
at 68% good to excellent, and 12% poor to very poor. On the December chart 
support is at the 20-day at $3.68 then the 50-day at $3.65. Resistance is at 
the 10-day at $3.71 then the $3.78 1/2 recent high.


   Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents lower at midday with trade bouncing back 
from some of the early weakness. Meal is $2 lower and bean oil is 25 to 35 
points lower. Soybean basis will likely see pressure with harvest continuing to 
expand with some areas wrapping up. Quality concerns remain at the forefront as 
well, with some areas showing more damage than others. Crush margins remain 
strong in the near term. South America should continue to see fairly normal 
early season progress in the near term with good moisture with the biggest 
concerns in Argentina, and potentially NE Brazil longer term. The Brazil real 
has held near the upper end of the recent range, keeping effective nearby 
values well above the U.S. The weekly crop progress left conditions unchanged 
at 66% good to excellent, 12% poor to very poor with harvest at 53%, 14% behind 
the five-year average. On the November chart support is the 50-day at $8.55 
which we have tested this morning, with the lower Bollinger band at $8.40 
support, and resistance the 20-day at $8.63.


   Wheat trade is flat to 2 cents with trade continuing to test the lower end 
of the range with the ongoing oversold conditions. The US dollar has faded 
slightly this morning with world wheat values again steady to firmer. Winter 
wheat planting is ongoing with better conditions in North America than Europe 
with some relief in the Black Sea areas. Prevent Planting dates are approaching 
soon on the plains. Australia remains in the recent weather pattern with 
harvest coming soon, MATIF milling wheat is firmer this morning. Planting 
progress was rated at 72%, 5 percentage points behind average, and emerged at 
50%, 5 percentage points behind average. On the December Kansas City chart, we 
are below at the 10-day and 20-day at 5.21 with the lower Bollinger Band 
support at 5.05, and then $5.00. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.  
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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